As in 2019 the Green candidate will be Steph Hodgins-May, the new Liberal candidate Christopher Ride. CruiseOps.Melbourne@iss-shipping.com. Not just passing legislation in the House if representatives but also the symbolism of legitimacy that Anthony Albanese won a majority in his own right. The electorate covers 40 square kilometres. At least the boundary change adding more Greens territory would significantly decrease the ALP v GRN margin. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining. During this period it was held by only five members, all men, most notably Jack Holloway, a minister who served under John Curtin and Ben Chifley; Frank Crean, Treasurer and then Deputy Prime Minister in the Whitlam Government; and Clyde Holding, a minister in the Hawke Government who prior to switching to federal politics had served as Victorian Opposition Leader from 1967 to 1977. he video of the event is the second of the three videos below. Immediately below is the video of the event. After attending Mount Scopus College, Josh graduated from Monash University with a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in Political Studies. So lets look at Absent votes first. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/vic2022/albertpark2022/comment-page-1#comment-776581. 100% agree. Here is a rundown of the candidates, based on answers to questionnaires from FLORIDA TODAY. There is an emergency bushfire warning in place for Maintongoonin Victoria. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteran William Johnson, who sits on the city's Board of Adjustments. But Melbourne differs from other electorates in two ways. In Labor's inner-northern seats, the Liberal first preference vote hovers around 25% and Green prospects swing on Liberal preferences. Labor's state and federal executives did not adopt Danby's position. That was the Green path to victory in the local state seat of Prahran at the last two state elections. (Melbourne local time. For more information, see Results 1983-2019. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. It sounds as if Josh Burns doesnt want to win. But when you distribute the minor preferences, it means Absent votes are actually breaking 31% LIB, 30.2% ALP and 38.8% GRN in 3CP terms. Now we have the Libs ahead of Labor by 137 votes, and the Greens only 208 votes behind, with still the following remaining: Provisionals (always favour Greens) Reports of 1000 Covid votes (both parties expect to favour Greens) Still a total 4648 postals issued but not counted. Occupation:Environmental health physicist, Education: Bachelor of Science in physics, University of Central Florida, Master of Science in health physics, Georgia Tech, Political/government/civic experience:U.S. Navy, enlisted, 1980-1990; U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Engineering and Health Physics Fellow (1991-1995); associate professor and chair, Department of Health Physics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas (1995-2004); U.S. Air Force scientist, 2004-2022; president of church congregational council (2017-2021); member of West Melbourne Board of Adjustments (2019-2022), member of School Advisory Committees (Suntree Elementary, 2006-2009; Longleaf Elementary, 2010-2012; West Melbourne School for Science, 2013-2015). And no matter what the result, considering the Greens are currently third on 32.93% and all the remaining votes should favour them, I think its safe to say all 3 candidates will finish between a minimum of 33.1% and a maximum of 33.6% when the 3CP count is complete. Council members earn $7,475 annually, plus a $255 monthly travel . Agree, Dan M, also need to note that much of Prahran is also in Macnamara in all 3 seats the Libs overperformed their federal results in May and like what we saw in their elite heartland there was some recovery these seats (taking into account more right-wing minor parties this time like FFV) compared to 2018. Melbourne Ports covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. It was located to the south of Melbourne's central business district and covered an area of approximately 40km2 around the north and north-eastern shores of Port Phillip Bay. Just to clarify Daniel, Liberals currently lead Labor by 50 votes on the 3CP, but the rstes at which new votes are breaking, after the Libs outpace Labor 3:1 on minor preferences, is actually adding to that lead, not reducing it. The four candidates are incumbents Diana Adams, John Dittmore and Andrea Young, along U.S. Navy veteranWilliam Johnson, who sits on the citys Board of Adjustments. Labour need only finish in final two run-off. Inner south of Melbourne. Tel: +61 3 9646 8544Email: And Vice Mayor Julie Sanders faces Adam Woodworth in the District 6 race. Originally, it was anchored in the industrial suburbs in the west of the electorate, which are part of Labor's heartland in west Melbourne. Continuing the gradual downwards trend in the Labor primary vote, in the 2013 election, Labor was returned with a primary vote of less than 32 percent. It must be in a smart, resilient and low-impact manner. Considering that, I still think Labor are the best position to win and probably will. Hickey is a qualified primary school teacher, social worker, and family therapist. The only things saving Josh Burns here today are the cratering Liberal vote and, most importantly of all, the perfect little gerrymander with Higgins. Before being won by Josh Burns in 2019, the electorate had been represented by only five members in 113 years. West Melbourne, a 10-square-mile enclave nestled between its larger neighbors of Melbourne and Palm Bay, moved to support its own water plant to meet the needs of the growing city. Labor need the remaining votes to actually break stronger for them compared to the Libs than they have, to get in front of them. Unlock unlimited digital access to floridatoday.com Click here and subscribe today. Further, I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department. The Division of Melbourne Ports was an Australian federal electoral division in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. What they care about is what matters to me. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Newspoll-You Gov actually picked up a bounce for the Greens over the last six days before E-Day, and that helps explain why late arriving postals in Macnamara appear to be breaking more to Green than Labour. ALP 30,499 3. 3483 remaining and they are breaking 25.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 30.8% GRN and 15.6% Other. In Macnamara, the Liberal vote is consistently around 40%, and a Green victory hinges on the Greens passing Labor on first preferences, and then strong flows of Labor preferences putting the Green candidate ahead of the Liberal in the final count. This was looking like a near-certain Labor retain but every batch of votes that has come in has been breaking exactly the way it needs to for the Greens to win, so basically they just need that to continue through the last 6000+ votes to win the seat, while Labor need the final 6000+ to be sufficiently weaker for *either* the Greens or Liberals for them to retain it. Stephen Mayne will be the moderator. The graph of first preference votes below shows rising Green support at the expense of Labor, a pattern repeated in many inner-Melbourne electorates. I think this is more important then people think. On those boundaries, for decades it was one of the safest Labor seats in the country, and Labor usually easily retained it even during severe nationwide defeats for Labor. Departures - add 3.5 hours to ETD. Education: University of Akron/Chancellor University, Political/government/civic experience: 30 years of public service, including four years with the City Council in West Melbourne. This information is updated hourly. Boyd Community Hub, 207 City Rd Southbank. East of Hotham, the Glen Eira part of St Kilda East is totally different and more similar to Caulfield North. (Victories by a party of government are indicated by thick coloured underlining.). Labor would have still won since they still hold Albert Park by a 11% margin compared to the Libs 2% margin in Caufield though there was a 2% swing to the Libs in both seats against expectations the Lib vote would further collapse in that area like in the federal election. Redistribution Macnamara lost Windsor to Higgins. Maintaining our business-friendly reputation by voting against any proposals or regulations which could be seen as a hindrance/raised taxes to small businesses and middle-class families. And all it will take is slightly weaker flows for them, particularly from the postal votes, or just less postal votes being returned, for Labor to stay ahead of them. Poll Bludger has not called it for Labor, they have actually said the odds are most likely leaning against them now. It was replaced by the division of Macnamara which had almost identical boundaries. I thought this was Labours until I read ABCs Anthony Greens column in which he said he was going to call it for Labour, until the Labour candidate for Macnamara phoned him and said the Greens could still win it. Danby, MP for Melbourne Ports since 1998, . Immediately below is the video of the event. The departure of Danby in 2019 saw a boost in Labor vote, though whether this was a coincidence with of consequence of Danby's departure is impossible to say. They are incumbents Joyce Barton and Corey Runte, as well as . Pht sng trc tip trn u Green Gully Cavaliers U21 vs Port Melbourne Sharks SC U21 AUS VPL U21 trong khun kh gii VQG Jordan full HD tc cao vi bnh lun min ph ti Trc Tip Bng . This must be a record for having the biggest difference between the primary vote and 2PP vote. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. This even includes the most recent batches of postal votes where the Greens outperformed Labor by 7% (after minor preferences). In 2018, the Australian Electoral Commission proposed renaming Melbourne Ports as Macnamara, after medical scientist Dame Jean Macnamara. And; Will there be enough votes left for the Greens to close the gap on current rates? I don't have a top three issues. The only seat that is in-doubt in my mind is Gilmore which is likely to go Liberal. See ships at Port Phillip Heads: Arrivals - subtract 3.5 hours from ETA. I find it interesting that the Party and Independents who had stronger positions on tackling climate change gained more seats than Labour, not sure about Dai Le in Fowler, but that was another howler from Labour. The Greens would have got 32% in May but only got 20% of November. Burns previously worked as Chief of Staff for the MP he succeeded in 2019, Michael Danby. 1422 are remaining and they are breaking 24.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 34.2% GRN, 13.2% Other. I compared it to the Macnamara electorate results in May not the 2018 state results where a Greens ran. The seven-member City Council will have three contested seats on the November general electionballot: Districts 2, 4 and 6. Contents 1 Members 2 Election results 2.1 Elections in the 2010s 2.2 Elections in the 2000s Basically around 0.4% (less than 400 votes) between first and third. Full distribution of preferences was just released in a zip file according to Poll Bludger, I downloaded it and had a look then. I project the following based on whats left to count: LIB 33.5% ALP Just over 33.3% GRN Just under 33.2%. A study reviewing the need for a city fire station could come before the mayor and the other six CityCouncil members by October. He represented construction workers before the Cole Building Industry Royal Commission, represented unions and workers during the Ansett insolvency, and states that he was involved in prosecuting some of Australia's biggest clothing companies for breaches of laws designed to prevent the exploitation of outworkers. I disagree with you Nimalan, its worth noting Labor still had a 7% swing against them and the Greens got a 4% increase in primary votes in one of the most gentrified areas of the Macnamara electorate (Port Melbourne). When comparing Greens and Labor. A major activity centre like Glenhuntly Road shouldnt be a boundary because the traders on both sides of the road are a single community of interest. Also the issue for Josh Burns is that most of the population growth is occurring in the west of the seat such as Southbank/Fishermens Bend. The moderator was Bernadene Voss, a two-term Councillor and three-time Mayor in the City of Port Phillip. Consequently, sample ballots in different jurisdictions in the same state may not be . City Council members also could soon discuss the feasibility of building their own city-run fire department. Question now is what becomes of the boundaries at the next election. It will make a massive difference in how the Albanese government is seen. Globally the pollsters, in 2022, have been consistently overestimating social democratic support and underestimating Green support. Trent had already calculated the breakdown of the primary vote for Albert Park based on the May federal results. Assessment Macnamara has been under threat from the Liberal Party in the past, but its unlikely the Liberal Party could win in the current environment. The current 3CP order after about 87,000 votes is 1 Libs, 2 Labor, 3 Greens. He has previously worked as a teacher's aide and a factory hand, and before the 2019 election was a Senior Adviser to the Premier of Victoria, Daniel Andrews. While Macnamara is mentioned as a possible Green gain, the playing field from which the Greens might emerge as victors differs greatly from that in traditional Labor seats north of the Yarra. I've heard lots of folks' concerns to everything ranging from stormwater runoff in the lagoon to age-friendly inclusion in the newly developed downtown areas. The city of more than 28,000 residents has a $50 million budget, and is set to complete its own water plant in December 2026. The incumbent, Debbie Thomas, is wrapping up her second consecutive term, and cannot run for reelection because of termlimits. Most of the candidates attended. Labor appeared to have picked up primary votes in both Brisbane and Macnamara just the greens picked up more, so not all negative for them Interestingly the preferences for non-green/lib/labor voters in those seats (mainly right-wing UAP,ON, LDP and smaller left-wing AJP) were split around 50% lib, 35% green and 15% alp so assume more UAP/ON/LDP voters preferenced greens over labor. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910. He was elected Leader after the 2019 election. Paterson works in mental health and runs programs and interventions to make workplaces more psychologically safe and mentally healthy. This month, council members are voting on Melbourne's proposed $242 million total city budget for 2022-23, among other topics. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. I am not saying the results will be repeated in 2025 for Josh Burns a Dutton led Liberal party will underperform the state Libs which moved back to the centre on climate. So the Liberals have no catching up to do to stay in the top two, because theyre already first by 50 votes. Political/government/civic experience: U.S. Coast Guard veteran; educator inradiologic technology; four Afghanistan deployments with the Department of Defense contractorRemote Medical International; Golf Club Estates Civic Associationboard of directors and treasurer, Campaign email:alison.dietrich@brevardhealth.org, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links: None listed. Steph Hodgins-May Candidate for Macnamara (prev. This will not onlyprovide tax savings, it will allow for a more equitable taxation of the residents of West Melbourne. Tony Penna, SRA President will be the moderator. As a scientist, I will bring critical thinking to our decision-making. To date, we can boastOrion180 (300 jobs), Northrop Grumman (400 to 600 jobs), and creating less government for our small-business owners. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. Four candidates are vying for three seats on the West Melbourne City Council in the Nov. 8 election, with a number of issues involving infrastructure on the table. Third Issue:Supporting our first responders. The logical approach to me at face value would be to consolidate the 4 Labor seats of Chisholm, Hotham, Isaacs and Bruce into 3, but Im sure they wont want to do that. The first preference vote graph is reflected in many inner-Melbourne electorate, with a rise in Green support mirrored by a decline in Labor first preference vote. But Im tipping Burns to hold in a Labor v Greens count. This month, council members are voting on Melbourne's proposed$242 million total city budget for 2022-23, among other topics. Canadian airline coming: Sunwing Airlines to launch service from Melbourne to three Canadian cities in December, New police headquarters: Melbourne leaders dedicate $32 million police headquarters to force's lone fallen officer, Occupation:Realtor, private investigator, process server, notary, Education:Course study of sociology, with a concentration in forensic psychology, at Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, Political/government/civic experience:911 dispatcher; Space Coast Young Republicans; NAACP Legal Redress Team; attends Melbourne Police Community Relations Council meetings; 18th District process server, Campaign email:rachael4melbourne@gmail.com, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links:rachael4melbourne.com;Facebook: Rachael Bassett for Melbourne City Council. This campaigns main areas of focus are in keeping the city government of Melbourne accountable, maintaining the city of Melbourne's reputable business-friendly laws and ensuring lagoon-friendly policies for our residents. Daniel, the biggest problem for Labor at the moment is that their margin vs Liberals on how the current votes are breaking is smaller than the advantage the Liberals are getting over Labor on minor preferences. This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria Melbourne. Macnamara is the new name adopted for the seat known since Federation as Melbourne Ports. The second last exclusion (UAP) is what leapfrogged the Liberals from 3rd to 1st and eliminated the Greens. Hodgins-May was the Green candidate for Ballarat at the 2013 federal election and came close to victory contesting Melbourne Ports at the 2016 election but did not poll as strongly in 2019. Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. The successful candidates were: Canal Ward Tim Baxter (Deputy Mayor) Rhonda Clark Louise Crawford Gateway Ward Heather Cunsolo Peter Martin Marcus Pearl (Mayor) Lake Ward Andrew Bond Katherine Copsey Christina Sirakoff Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Twitter: @JDGallop. The only way that I cant see Labor winning here is if all the cards fall the right way for the Greens and that doesnt often happen. Stephen Mayne was the moderator. The West Finger Pier is a good vantage point to view the ships. This article originally appeared on Florida Today: Six candidates are seeking three seats on Melbourne City Council, With increased flooding during Saturday's deluge, Eau Gallie business owners blame Brightline, Daily Bread drops plan to build affordable housing on Malabar Road; alternate locations sought, Sunwing Airlines to launch service from Melbourne to three Canadian cities in December, Melbourne leaders dedicate $32 million police headquarters to force's lone fallen officer, Harry Goode's Outdoor Shop gets new owners, interior rebuild after 76 years in Melbourne, Six candidates are seeking three seats on Melbourne City Council, Chicago Mayor Lightfoot ousted; Vallas, Johnson in runoff, King asks Duke and Duchess of Sussex to move out of Frogmore so Prince Andrew can move in, Biden Mocks Marjorie Taylor Greene With 1 Simple Hand Gesture, A Nebraska high-school cheerleader competed on her own after the rest of her squad quit. There are 4,658 envelopes waiting to processed, only 200 of them are postals, they are late arriving postals which I guess will favour Greens or break even. From his post 24 hours ago: All of this amounts to bad news for Labor in its quest for 76 seats, with Brisbane now out of the picture and the odds most likely leaning against them in Macnamara, which I for one thought they had in the bag earlier in the week, and which my results system is continuing to call as Labor retain due to its inability to think in three-party terms.. ALP got 31.8% of the primary vote but 62.3% of the 2PP. Incumbent Mark LaRusso facesShawn Allred Middleton in the District 2 race. Conceding and declaring victory is only a formality. Elected Councillors were sworn in at a Special Council Meeting held on 11 November 2020. (My prediction is around 33.5% LIB, 33.3% ALP, 33.2% GRN). Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998. The Division of Melbourne Ports was an Australian federal electoral division in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Her best hope now is that the Liberals smash Labor in the postal votes but thats unlikely. On paper the final boundaries have minimal impact on Labor's margin, nudging it down a percentage from 6.2% to 4.9%. 0:36. ABC has given Labor Macnamara and hence get a majority of 76 seats. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. The other three members of the City Council Mayor Hal Rose, and Councilors Pat Bentley, Daniel McDow and Stephen Phrampus have terms that run until 2024. It is absolutely ridiculous that the ABC and Pollbludger is being conservative on their calls. First Preference Results 1983-2019, The Labor lean of Melbourne Ports/Macnamara has declined at recent elections, but as discussed above, the three-way nature of the contest means the after preferences count is the secondary hurdle Labor must clear to win. It includes vmost of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra, almost all of the City of Yarra, and a small slice of Moreland Council. Burns was the Labor candidate for Caulfield at the 2014 state election. But, because the margins are so slim, what favours Labor is that it wont take much of a change to how votes are breaking (either Libs or Greens start doing worse) for them to stay in the top two and win. Because 500 votes separated the Greens from Labor, and in all seats covering Macnamara, the Greens had an increase in primary votes, 8% in Prahran, 4% in Albert Park, and even 1.1% in Caulfield with a teal running. Six candidates are vying for three seats on the Melbourne City Council on the Nov. 8 ballot, with hopes of helping guide governmental operations of one of the Space Coast's dominant economic communities. Basically all that has to happen for the Greens to currently win, is that the votes need to keep breaking exactly as they are, and there needs to be at least 800 more postal votes received. Florida 2022 elections. Greens 32.84% (30,555). I would argue if they preferenced the cookers last and Michael OBrien was the leader they would have done better here. @ Bingo i was not trying to make a political point but when i said Greens underperformed in Albert Park. 1. Bandt increased his primary vote further to 42.6% in 2013, allowing him to overcome the decision of the Liberal Party to reverse past preference recommendations and put Labor ahead of the Greens. Since Labor already needs the support of the Greens to pass anything through the Senate, it doesnt make a huge difference in practical terms whether they also need Greens (or Independent) support in the House or have a majority in their own right. Schultz is an Elwood local and long been a passionate advocate for social and environmental change and is campaigning for change to agricultural practices, for both animal protection and to combat the effects of climate change. Do automatic recounts apply to 3CP counts? Shifts east losing Kensington to Maribyrnong in the west while gaining Clifton Hill from Cooper in the east, and a part of Brunswick East from Wills. Weds, 16th November with Georgie Dragwidge (Indep), Elizabeth Antunovic (Freedom Party) and Cassandra Westwood (Animal Justice Party). The event was moderated by Stephen Mayne. Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. So it will be interesting to see what constructions they try to come up with. The former Labor members are Jim Matthews 1906-1931, E.J.Holloway 1931-1951, Frank Crean 1951-1977, Clyde Holding 1977-1998 and Michael Danby 1998-2019. Because Antony Green knows way more (if it is true that he was going to call it). Former Labor members include Bill Maloney 1904-1940, Arthur Calwell 1940-1972, Ted Innes 1972-1983, Gerry Hand 1983-1993 and Lindsay Tanner 1993-2010. What a fascinating race this has turned into. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean. . Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. , based on the May federal results study reviewing the need for city! A Labor v Greens count to victory in the District 2 race rising Green support rundown of the,... 9646 8544Email: and Vice Mayor Julie Sanders faces Adam Woodworth in city! On their calls 11 November 2020 Political Studies, who had served as a until! Name adopted for the next two decades, retiring in 2019 the Green candidate will be Steph Hodgins-May the! The new seat of Prahran at the next two decades, retiring in 2019 Green! On paper the final boundaries have minimal impact on Labor 's margin nudging! Stay in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne Ports boundaries have minimal impact on Labor 's inner-northern,... That the Liberals have no catching up to do to stay in the inner south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne was! A $ 255 monthly travel Bill Maloney 1904-1940, Arthur Calwell 1940-1972, Ted 1972-1983! It will allow for a more equitable taxation of the residents of West Melbourne fire.... 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